Are the Clippers Cut Out for This?

Is it already time to consider this experiment a failure?

When last we left the LA Clippers, they were the league’s newest super team, ready to bring devastation to the Western Conference as they vied for control at the top. But since the trade that brought them James Harden, they have been winless. Their most recent loss was to the struggling and undermanned Memphis Grizzlies. While teams take time to gel together (especially when mixing star talent), it is time to be slightly concerned for the Clippers. Now, everything we covered in the previous piece about the Clippers remains true. They have the potential to be a team that plays its way into the Western Conference Finals. All of the pieces are in place, there is just the issue of making them fit together. The season is still young, but when expectations are high, there is very little room for error. Fans are at the point where they have to ask: what is wrong with the Clippers? And more importantly, can it be fixed?

Since the Harden trade, the Clippers have averaged 104 points per game, an awful number for a team so stacked with talent. Surely a team with Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, James Harden, and Russell Westbrook can score, right? Not necessarily. Turn your attention to Exhibit A: the first quarter against the Grizzlies. Be warned, it’s rough.

Their first two offensive possessions were truly offensive. The first was essentially a Westbrook turnover. But, it was the first possession and stuff happens throughout a game. Sometimes, you just turn the ball over, no need to over analyze. However, their second possession was a bad omen of things to come. Since getting Harden, they have liked getting him the ball on the elbow as a facilitator and standing Westbrook in the strong corner. In the weak corner, they run an option for Kawhi. He can either take a flex cut via a screen from PG to get through the paint, or he can curl to the wing off a screen from Zubac. In theory, it’s a great play design. See if you can spot the problem.

Did you see it? The commentators sure did. The offense, with some of the most dynamic scorers in the NBA, is stagnant. Now, credit where credit is due. The weak side defense did a great job disrupting the secondary action between PG and Zubac with physicality and communication. Notice all of the heavy lifting Marcus Smart (MEM #36) was doing, first digging down to dissuade a pass to PG before calling out a switch as Kawhi got through the paint. Then he top blocked PG as the latter attempted to gain an advantage with Zubac’s screen. Now, notice where this left the offense.

To be kind, the spacing on display is awful. The non-shooting threat of Westbrook in the corner allows his defenders to consistently ignore him to pack the paint and shrink the floor. Meanwhile, Kawhi just meandered into the deep corner where he and Westbrook could practically hold hands as the team scrambled their way to a bad shot. And the offense is a multilayered issue. Let’s start with the most obvious layers, and then we’ll move to some more nuanced conversation.

For one, the team is horrible in transition. According to stats from NBA.com, the Clippers are scoring an abysmal 0.87 points per possession on their transition offense, making them dead last in the league. Now, if they were just not a transition team, that would be one thing, but they are taking the fourth most shots in transition. Nearly 20% of their attempted shots come during fast breaks. The Clips are an isolation heavy offense. When teams commit large portions of their attack to iso ball, it can really disrupt the rhythm of their teammates. An easy way to reclaim some rhythm is in transition. If head coach Tyronn Lue wants to continue on the current path, he has to convince his guys to run the floor more. It might help take the lid off the basket when his team is struggling to score. More importantly, it would provide some much needed energy to the players.

With that said, if your team doesn’t score in transition, your halfcourt offense has to be top tier. In the modern NBA, a top tier system is predicated on spacing. If a team cannot stretch defenses, they cannot win. The Clippers have been a prime example in a really unfortunate way. Let’s look at another example from their loss against the Grizzlies.

The ball never switched sides of the floor. For 90% of the possession, Zubac stood in the dunker’s spot. Once PG was doubled, he was able to pass out of it, but Terance Mann was wide open in the weak corner. It seemed like the Clips were so focused on the ball side action that no one had the wherewithal to swing the ball to the open guy on the weak side. The Clips really struggle getting any kind of off ball movement or compelling actions away from the ball to get guys open. It is really disappointing, especially for such a good coach and talented team. So what’s the fix?

The more I have watched the Clips, the more I have disliked the high post initiation in their offense. I still think it has potential, but not as their go-to set. If they are really committed to their current starting five (more on that in a minute), they have to maximize their spacing. Just by initiating the offense higher, they can open up so many more options. Instead of putting Westbrook in the ball side corner, have him on the weak side. Whether he cuts or gets a screen or just stands around, have him away from the ball. If the defense tries to roam away from him, he can get the ball and attack the space rather than hoisting a shot. Even with his poor free throw shooting, he can at least help get his team into the bonus. And this isn’t just theorizing. Take a look at the first play of their most recent match-up against the Mavericks.

Even with sub-optimal spacing on the weak side, look how much more room there is to work with! Kawhi basically took a leisurely stroll into the paint. They used the same set to generate good looks multiple times in the first quarter. In fact, the entirety of the first quarter of the game against the Mavs looked good. Even with some lapses in defensive coverage, the team played with energy and executed their offense at a high level. But their problems reared their head in the second quarter where they were outscored 47 to 18. No, you did not read that incorrectly. By then, the game was over. But the song and dance remained the same. Bad spacing, no pacing, no off-ball movement, poor communication on defense. It was one of the ugliest periods of basketball I have ever seen at a professional level.

The media certainly has had a lot to say about the Clippers’ record after the Harden trade. They have pointed to his plus-minus total of -67 and tried to make him shoulder all the blame. While Harden certainly isn’t innocent, neither are the rest of them. At some point, the coaching staff needs to be held accountable. At some point, the other stars have to be held accountable (PG has played horribly since the trade save for the Grizzlies game). The Clips have failed to craft an offense that can maximize the talent they have. And so the question is raised: can the four superstars all play at the same time? So far, the answer appears to be a resounding “No.”

Here’s where the nuanced conversation comes in. The debate has centered around who to send to the bench, and it seems like much of the media agrees it should be Harden forced to sit and be the sixth man. But he was brought in to be the facilitator. Ask yourself an honest question. Would you rather have Russell Westbrook or James Harden being your decision maker? Give me the guy who takes slightly better care of the ball. Moreover, give me the guy who maximizes the available spacing on the floor. I don’t believe a front office makes the decision to trade for James Harden to send him to the bench. Is a simple change of lineup enough though? Tyronn Lue is a good coach. If nothing else, he is experienced. The listed failings of their offense are ultimately on his shoulders. Not having definitive lineups is on his shoulders. The pressure for him is enormous. Because no matter who he decides to sit, he then has to figure out the rest of the rotations and he especially has to figure out the playcalling/ design. Does Norman Powell move up to starting status to provide more spacing and shooting options? Does Terance Mann start to provide youthful energy? If Westbrook comes off the bench, how do you maximize his effectiveness with the current personnel? If Harden comes off the bench, do you lose his buy-in? Do you get really weird and move PJ Tucker up in the rotation to help on defense and space the offense?

I’m not a basketball expert. I’m a student of the game with a platform. I don’t have the answers to these questions, and even if I did, it wouldn’t matter. The Clippers’ players, coaches, and front office are on the hook for those answers. The Clippers still have a chance to be great. They have only been together four games (that Harden played in, anyway). There is still time to get things figured out. The basketball community needs to remember the lost art of patience. That said, if the Clippers prove unable to mesh, they will be the next great NBA failure. For their sake, I hope it doesn’t come to that.