Disclaimer: The author is a lifelong San Antonio Spurs fan. He may be blinded by optimism. Also, “Wemby Watch” will now release every Friday.
At this point, every observer worth their salt knows what they are getting with the 19 year old phenom Victor Wembanyama. His ceiling is as high as anyone’s we’ve ever seen. I truly, genuinely believe that. No one at his size should be able to do the things he can do, yet he can. Sure, there are issues. He’s 19, there are going to be issues. It doesn’t matter if he has been a professional since he was 16, he has to adjust to the physicality of the NBA game. But despite his warts, he’s going to be a star. There is much uncertainty about the future of the San Antonio Spurs, and most of it lies in roles and rules. Let’s talk about it.
The Experiment
I want to be kind here. The Spurs have the worst guard rotation in the NBA. Backup guard Tre Jones is the only true point guard on the roster, and as much as I love him, he’s not the starting point guard of the future for San Antonio. That title has been thrust onto Jeremy Sochan, the second year player technically listed as a power forward. Gregg Popovich has stated Sochan at point guard is going to be a season-long experiment. Jeremy has, by his own admission, never played point guard in his life. It certainly shows. Obviously, becoming a team’s primary playmaker at the NBA level is challenging at best, and so far, Sochan has not lived up to it. Now, I like being optimistic, especially about young players. The guy is 20 years old, he has time to become whatever he wants to be. And frankly, if Gregg Popovich believes in him, so do I. Having said that, it has not been fun to go through the associated growing pains.
Sochan clearly looks uncomfortable at the position. Totally fair given the circumstances. But personally, as much as I trust the long-term vision Pop has, I think he is missing what is right in front of him: Keldon Johnson is the guy to convert into your starting point guard. It actually has some legs. First, let’s look at the stats. According to Cleaning the Glass, KJ is in the 93rd percentile among wings in assist percentage on a team that currently averages the third most assists per game (via NBA.com). He’s also in the 90th percentile in turnover percentage, only giving the ball up on 7.0% of his possessions. He and Sochan are averaging similar assist numbers (4.4 and 4.5 APG respectively) but Johnson only commits 1.1 turnovers per game as compared to Sochan’s 2.3 per game. In case it is unclear, that is a huge difference.
Stats don’t paint the full picture though. Let’s check the tape. We’ll start with the status quo of Sochan guard play. Let’s look at some examples from different games.
The above play isn’t exactly game breaking, and it is understandable to feel like I’m nitpicking a bit. But those are the kind of reads he needs to make if he is to be the point guard for the Spurs. Obviously, he doesn’t need to be perfect. Mistakes happen over the course of the game, they just can’t happen with consistency. To Jeremy’s credit, he got the offensive rebound and immediately located a wide open Wemby who clanked the three ball. And there are good things! Like this play!
It looks simple, but he made the right read. He saw the defense lose track of Devin Vassell and got him the ball on time and on target. He just wasn’t awarded with an assist. That was easy, though. Vassell couldn’t have been much more open. When things get more tense, he tends to lose himself within the game. One only needs to look at the Spurs’ November 14th matchup against the Thunder to see that. With 2:30 left in the second quarter, the Spurs were barely clutching onto a one point lead when this happened. See if you can discern Pop’s emotional state.
Did you see Popovich? Absolutely livid. After the Spurs coughed up the ball and gave up a score, he called time. According to ESPN, he was upset because Sochan didn’t bother to get the play call from his coach. For most other point guards in the league, that would have been a clear moment to see what their coach wanted to run, to see if their general had a plan to stop the bleeding. With his inexperience, Sochan just didn’t think about it.
The objective of pointing those things out isn’t to slam Sochan. I actually really like him and I think he’ll blossom into a quality, winning player and maybe even a secondary facilitator someday. Rather, the objective is to state the obvious: the experiment isn’t working. However, it’s not right to identify problems without presenting solutions, and the solution has been staring the Spurs in the face. Keldon Johnson is already equipped to be a stand-in point guard. The most obvious long-term fix is acquiring a real PG via trade or free agency. But KJ has the tools to run the team as the youngest roster in the NBA forges its identity. We already covered the stats, so what does the tape say?
Whether it is fueled by instinct or experience, it has to be stated that KJ is a good passer. At the very least, he is a passable one (I’m sorry, I had to do it). In seriousness, Johnson possesses enough passing skill and awareness to run an offense. Take this play for example, where he sees the defense wander too far into the paint off the corner shooter.
Maybe not a hard read, but he definitely made the right pass. I also like this next play, where Johnson found Sochan back-cutting his defender out of “zoom” action.
And yeah, KJ has his own problems at the point. For one, he throws far too many jump passes and has a tendency to get caught in the air with no real plan. He doesn’t have the tightest handle and can get caught in traffic. No one is asking him to be Magic Johnson or Kyrie Irving. But he could definitely be the team’s starting facilitator while Sochan slowly becomes more comfortable. Let it be reiterated: if Pop thinks Sochan can play the point, so do I. I’m just suggesting that removing the primary playmaking responsibilities from his shoulders might ease his burden and help him develop more quickly as he takes things in off the ball.
But there are more problems than just the lack of quality, facilitating guard play. The whole offense needs a tune up, made evident by its woeful 107.8 offensive rating. Gregg Popovich has made it clear: he doesn’t want to bestow crushing expectations on his players and he will slowly develop a system more tailored to their strengths. What should that system look like, though?
The New Spurs
I’ll try to keep it brief. In a previous “Wemby Watch”, I made mention of the Spurs employing more pinch post actions with Victor serving as the playmaking hub. He has the passing gene, and it’s not like anyone can get a hand in his face enough to inhibit his decision making. He is the future of the franchise and his poise at 19 years old has proved he can handle it. Let him do it all. Running pinch post, Wemby would get the ball at the elbow and have no teammates between him and the nearest sideline. His vision and willingness to pass would keep defenses honest as his teammates ran whatever actions they needed to get open while also giving him space to operate. If nothing else, he would be one-on-one with a defender who he could easily shoot over. If he had a big on him, he would get to use his handle to get to his spot.
And at this point, we all know what Wemby needs to work on. He needs to add strength, he needs to tighten up his handle (particularly against guards), and he needs to shore up some of his decision making. All of those things are true. But most of that is off-season work. The stuff to improve during the season is the tactical planning and execution. Pop still has the creative juice to draw up some confounding plays to befuddle defenses. If the earlier floppy action video didn’t convince you, here’s this weird elevator play for Doug McDermott.
The Spurs have a future. Even if they lost every game for the rest of the season, there would still be hope. They have a solid young core to build around. Every player seems more than willing to learn and sacrifice for the needs of the team. Despite having the 27th ranked offense, they currently average the 3rd most assists per game. That is astounding! There are bright spots for sure, and as the Spurs begin to find their identity, people will forget the pains it took to get there. But for now, the pains keep coming. I believe in the Spurs. I believe in Sochan, I believe in Wembanyama, and I certainly believe in Pop.
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA.com
Full Court Dime 