Alex Seccia

Wemby Watch: Debut Does Not Disappoint

Disclaimer: The author is a lifelong San Antonio Spurs fan. No, he will not hide his fandom. But he may be blinded by optimism. Let him have this.

Going into the fourth quarter of Victor Wembanyama’s debut game was emotionally interesting. From a team perspective, the Spurs gave fans so much to like. Though the defense was characteristically lacking, the offense was joyous. Young players moving the ball and making good decisions (for the most part). It was awesome. Wemby had even played well up to that point, save for some dumb fouls. But those dumb fouls mattered, and they severely limited his playing time. And yet, despite that, he still gave fans plenty to be excited about. A nine point fourth quarter to bring the Spurs into striking distance of the win. Marvelous. Though they ultimately lost, it felt like they were in a good spot. Fast forward to game two, and fans were treated to more Wemby magic. I think both games perfectly encapsulate who Victor is, and there is a key trait to be observed in the young star.

Game 1: Spurs vs. Mavericks, 119-126, Spurs Lose

Obviously, the foul trouble was worrying in his first game, but there was so much to be excited about. He blocked Dallas’ first shot attempt. As a help defender, he is going to be such a problem, particularly if opposing teams have a non-shooter on the floor. Against the Mavs, he guarded Derrick Jones Jr. and was allowed to freely roam, looming in the short corner and near the elbow. Even if he blocks nothing throughout the course of a given game, opponents have to be aware of his position. Kyrie has shot that opening jumper thousands of times, though he has never had to fear an eight foot wingspan.

Defense is where Wembanyama is going to make the most immediate impact (especially as his offensive game adjusts to the NBA). There has never been a more exciting player to watch when guarding a three point attempt. It feels like he can touch every jump shot he’s around. He made Luka Doncic feel that pressure in the second quarter and it was clear.

However, there were some defensive lapses. Nothing too concerning, just detailing that the man isn’t perfect. There were some moments where he so wanted to affect a shot he would leave shooters open. Initially, it seems like a good idea to double Luka when he gets in the post with Jeremy Sochan, but not if it means leaving Tim Hardaway Jr. wide open on the wing. Or this dumb foul at the end of the first quarter.

I have no issue with not giving guys easy layups, but to pick up your second foul in the first quarter like this is plain dumb. With his length, he could have bothered the attempt even if he let Josh Green dribble by him. But hey, some of those lapses are just about experience. His feel for the game at the NBA level will improve and with head coach Gregg Popovich’s help, he’ll clean those things up in no time.

The real talking point of his debut game was the fourth quarter. Entering the final quarter of play, Wemby had a frustrating night. He was 2-for-4 from the field (all attempts from three point range), he had four turnovers, four fouls, and a whopping 15 minutes played. A weak showing for a prospect so hyped coming into the league. He picked up his fifth foul a mere 26 seconds into the fourth. At that point, I was ready to see the vitriol of the internet. Amazingly, Victor would leave little room for hate.

With 7:00 left to play, the Mavericks led the Spurs 108-103. The Wemby woes detailed above had seemingly soured the young Frenchman’s coming out party. “Seemingly” being the operative word. Then, he did this.

Sure, something to be expected from a human who stands at 7’4. Though watching it live, it felt as if there was a shift in energy. A few moments later, he did this.

The sheer confidence on display here for a 19 year old is astounding. He is easily the most hyped prospect since LeBron James. Everything he does on the court will be met with scrutiny from fans and foes alike. Haters will take to slander at the slightest hint of weakness, and fairweather supporters will abandon him if they sense any failure. Pay attention to the subtlety of this. He has had a subpar game. But he came back into the game and got an easy dunk off of a lob. That took the lid off. He then ran to Cedi Osman and DEMANDED the ball. He wanted the big moment. Not only did he want it, but he cashed in a silky jumper over the other team’s rookie who had a spectacular game. The made shot cut the San Antonio deficit to just two points. Wemby. Magic.

And when the Spurs needed to stay alive, they called his number. 4:00 to play, down 115-113. They ran a set designed to get Victor to the midrange on an island with his defender, and it worked to perfection. Another silky smooth jumper to tie things up.

Not everything went perfectly. He had a less than stellar turnover on the next possession. A few moments later, they ran a play for him to get the ball in the low post against Grant Williams and he forced up a shot really quickly. Again, the guy isn’t perfect, but who is? It feels like so many of the mistakes will just be things corrected with experience. He already has the basketball killer mentality. With under a minute to play, the Spurs were down by four. Kyrie Irving had the ball at the right wing. With five fouls, Wemby took the challenge of guarding the guy with the best handles in league history. Maybe I’m a hopeless romantic, but the moment reminded me of the 2016 Finals. Kyrie had the ball in the same spot, guarded by the other team’s brightest star. He went to a hesitation sidestep jumper. This time, the long arm of Wemby was there to bother him. Kyrie missed. The Spurs had a chance… if not for a Dallas offensive rebound to Luka stepback that sealed their fate. Still. Absolutely electric way to close out his first game. With the loss in the rearview, it was time to move on to game two, where Victor would refuse to be denied.

Game 2: Spurs @ Rockets, 126-122, Spurs Win (OT)

Wemby went to game two absolutely locked in. He managed to stay out of foul trouble and again affect the game in its biggest moments, when his team was in dire need. It was clear from the opening tip: this game was going to be different. The Spurs went to Wemby for their first possession and he went right at fellow young big man Alperen Şengün, and he cashed in immediately.

As a Spurs fan, you love seeing this to start a game.

A few minutes later, the Spurs missed him on a wide open lob. I mean, WIDE OPEN. He was so incensed that he actually took an alley-oop out of the hands of his teammate. Insanity. Then, he took Dillon Brooks off the dribble and almost converted a crazy and-one. Almost.

The rest of the game progressed rather tamely. He showed some more flashes on both ends here and there as is his MO. But the real magic came in the fourth quarter. Again. 8:20 left to play in the fourth, the Spurs ran back on defense after Devin Vassel hit a big three off of a swing pass to bring his team within a single point of the Rockets. 89-88. The Spurs immediately gave up an easy dunk, but as they inbounded the ball, Wemby ran the floor and caught a lob. Big momentum builder. Spurs still down one.

Two minutes later, the Spurs were down three. This happened.

The guy he absolutely yammed on? That would be the 6’10 Jabari Smith Jr. Six feet, ten inches tall. Cooked off the dribble, baptized into the Church of Posters. Wemby even hit his free throw. Three point play, and Spurs down by two. Then, the moment of truth. I won’t even attempt to describe it. Observe, and be amazed.

Same set as before, a play designed to put some poor soul on Wembanyama Island. When the Spurs needed him most, he delivered. In overtime, he continued his clutch play on both ends of the court. If nothing else, we have learned one thing about Victor: he wants the big moments. Elevating the level of play in the fourth quarter is something the greats are judged by long after they lace their shoes for the final time. Forgot all the skills, forget the physicals, forget the hype. Wembanyama has that killer inside. I look forward to seeing him develop throughout the season, and I look forward to him bringing the Spurs back to the mountaintop of the NBA once again.

Bucks Breakdown: Time to Fear the (New) Deer?

Last night, NBA fans were treated to the regular season debut of the league’s newest superteam, the Milwaukee Bucks with their three stars Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and the recently acquired Damian Lillard. As with any team, they certainly have their weaknesses, but can their strengths be enough to overcome them? Based on last night’s performance, it certainly appears that way.

The Offense

Offense is going to jump out at anyone watching this team. They are liable to go nuclear at the drop of a hat. Middleton is still on a minutes restriction as he continues to recover from surgery, but there was enough on display for fans to see how the Bucks want to conduct business. There were two early possessions in which the Bucks looked to generate a look out of the same set.

This could turn into a “screen the screener” with Lopez setting a screen for Giannis, causing confusion as defenses try to rotate and recover.

It started with Dame up top as the ball handler while Middleton received stagger screens from Giannis and Brook Lopez. Giannis then ran across the floor for a pick-and-roll with Middleton on the wing. Though nothing materialized from the first possession, they ran a very similar look a couple possessions later, but instead of waiting for the P&R, Middleton swung the ball back to Dame who then was the recipient of a screen from Giannis. Then the inevitable: the Bucks scored out the Dame-Giannis P&R. And look at the options out of this.

Giannis is flanked by Lopez and Malik Beasley in the corners. Middleton is on the wing and ends up wide open. Dame is on the other wing with a distracted defender. Giannis basically got to attack one-on-one downhill because Tobias Harris did not fully commit to a double team off of Middleton. Even with good defense by Embiid, Giannis was almost destined to score in that situation. Certainly a tough set to plan against for opponents.

A different look from early in the second quarter showed off some more options with different personnel.

The Bucks had their big three supported by fan favorite Bobby Portis and sophomore MarJon Beauchamp. Middleton and Giannis ran a pistol action on the left wing that opened up the floor. Check this out.

Another unenviable position. Middleton could have easily given the ball to Giannis. If Giannis chose to attack, 76er Pat Beverley would have been the help defender, but he would have needed to leave Dame to provide the help. Yikes. And because Embiid is not on the floor, the bunched up Bucks on the right side of the floor cause a size mismatch for Portis to get an easy bucket. I say again: yikes.

Even with one of the three amigos on the bench, the offense is still potent. Later in the second quarter, Giannis went to the bench, leaving Dame, Middleton, Lopez, Jae Crowder, and Beauchamp on the floor. With Dame and Middleton together, the Bucks really liked giving the former double screens (or “horns”) in the middle to operate out of.

In this instance, it just gets Lillard downhill with an easy jumper over Embiid. The next possession generates another good look for Lillard out of this concept, this time resulting in a three (oh, and Pat Connaughton is there). Lillard took Lopez’s screen and when he saw Embiid playing drop coverage… Well, that is a shot Dame hits in his sleep. But there was something the Bucks ran at the end of the first half that was really exciting: Giannis-Dame inverted P&R. The possibilities from that alone are near endless, and it resulted in a robbed four point play (though Lillard did hit the two free throws he was awarded).

There were other things that will need some tuning as the season progresses (like the split run at the beginning of the third quarter), but overall, the offense this team can run is really exciting and dynamic. There are so many threats on the floor at any given time. The scariest part is that Giannis did not even play a great game. Sure, he ended the night with a double-double, but he turned the ball over seven times. Under normal circumstances, that combined with limited Middleton minutes would almost ensure a Bucks defeat. But Dame Time is real, and Lilard’s record breaking 39 point debut sealed victory for the Fiserv faithful. Just as the world predicted: the Bucks can go nuclear at any time. The only things standing in their way of domination are health and defense.

The Defense

Bucks head coach Adrian Griffin won a championship under Nick Nurse as an assistant coach in 2019. The man knows defense, and so does the Milwaukee roster. The loss of Jrue Holiday is certainly a big one, but the Bucks do not necessarily need a top five defense to win the championship (especially given the offense we just discussed).

The biggest concern defensively for the Bucks is going to be on the perimeter. Lillard is a generational offensive talent. His defense, on the other hand, is lacking. To compensate, the Bucks have moved Malik Beasley into the starting lineup to tackle the best opposing perimeter player. In this game, that was Tyrese Maxey. Early on, the Bucks looked really good. Just look at these rotations.

That is the result of great coaching and tremendous communication/ understanding from the players. However, there were some concerns in transition. Like here, where reigning MVP and perennial post problem Joel Embiid is wide open under the basket.

When the Bucks got into their defense though, they were able to do what the Bucks do: pack the paint and force tough shots inside. And as a bonus, they were able to cover some of those Lillard liabilities. Yes, the 76ers went on some runs late, but it’s the NBA. Teams are going to go on runs. From what we have seen so far, the Bucks look good enough defensively to take them deep into the playoffs. They have the personnel, they have the experience, and they have the flexibility. Yes, there were some miscommunications…

However, nothing to be too concerned about yet. The real test for the Bucks will be playing a good, complete backcourt. Their match-ups with teams like Cleveland, Boston, Golden State, and Phoenix will be ones to keep an eye on. For now, though, one thing is clear: NBA, you should fear the deer.

Opening Night Antics

The NBA is BACK!

NBA opening night did not disappoint. Both games were excellent looks at four teams who stand to win a championship come season’s end. Given that fact, what exactly can fans extrapolate from last night? Let’s talk about it.

Nuggets vs. Lakers (119-107 DEN)

Plain and simple: it looks as if the Nuggets are not going to miss a beat. Last night, they looked just as dominant as they did when they hoisted the championship trophy last season. Their roster is largely the same and their star player is still as unstoppable as he ever was. Shocking no one, the Nuggets are going to be a problem for everyone else.

There was a lot to like from Mike Malone’s squad last night. At no point did the team do anything shocking or surprising. The old saying rings true in Denver: “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” Whenever this team plays, it feels like any given player can draw your attention. Last night, the reigning Finals MVP Nikola Jokic had a triple-double, yet I constantly found myself looking for Aaron Gordon. I love when the Nuggets get out in transition with Gordon on the floor because he always seems to find the weak spaces to attack. Last night, Austin Reaves was the target. There were more than a few instances in which Reaves was picked on, and it felt like Gordon was doing most of it. He showed off his strength and touch throughout the night. I also really like when the Nuggets get him initiating the offense.

Early on, the Nuggs got into an action with Gordon bringing the ball up that involved a Jokic screen for Jamal Murray who then got a dribble handoff (DHO) from Gordon curling toward the middle of the floor. From there, it seems like Murray and Gordon have the option of flipping that screen to allow the former to get to his right hand going downhill. If he takes the initial screen or denies the flip, Murray then dribbles into a screen from Jokic which in this case led to a seemingly open three until it was blocked by Taurean Prince (more on him later). To keep the floor spaced, Denver put Kentavius Caldwell-Pope and Michael Porter Jr. in the corners to provide shooting threats if the defense helped in the middle. It was signature Denver play design.

Denver got a good look, but the Lakers have length at every position

Denver was able to get a lot of looks from all over the floor due to Jokic’s triple-double. He was dominant from start to finish and it honestly seems hopeless trying to stop this team at full strength. But truthfully, the bigger talking point from this game is the Lakers. The Nuggets are a known quantity and the basketball world understood they were going to pick up where they left off. But the Lakers are a different team than they were last season. So what did we see from the new-look Lakers?

If you are a Lakers fan, you should be excited. While there were some glaring issues, there was a lot to like from the purple and gold, starting with the new personnel. The play we looked at earlier from the Nuggets would have been an excellent look from Murray against most other defenders, but Taurean Prince was not only able to contest the shot but get a block after recovering from the Jokic screen. In fact, Prince had his fingerprints all over the game. To start the contest, he hit back to back threes to showcase the exact reason the Lakers brought him to LA. Gabe Vincent and Christian Wood also gave the Lakers good minutes off the bench and things for LA seem promising.

Their biggest problem is going to be synchronicity. After all, most of this team is new. As head coach Darvin Ham plays with the lineups and minutes distribution, this team is going to come into its own and be dangerous. They already have a tremendous amount of trust in one another, as demonstrated by an awesome sequence of ball movement at the end of the first quarter. The Lakers had some good opportunities hamstrung by being ever so slightly out of sync. But those issues will be resolved with time. The more concerning factors might be troublesome though.

Clearly a team that trusts each other

LA rebounded horribly. They gave up 17 second chance points. Unacceptable. There needs to be more urgency on the glass. The Lakers actually won the rebound battle, pulling down 44 boards compared to the Nuggets’ 42, but the second chance opportunities made it feel as if the Lakers were just getting completely outclassed in that aspect of the game. And despite some really good stuff from their newcomers, things definitely stagnated with LeBron off the floor. In fairness, that problem will likely go away as the players carve out their roles throughout the season. Though there is the elephant in the room. Anthony Davis did not score at all in the second half.

Now, this could be a glass half empty or half full situation depending on your disposition. On the one hand, the Lakers brought the game within three points early in the 4th quarter despite lackluster production from their star big man. On the other hand, the man did not score when they needed it most. What happened? Well, AD actually had a really good first half. He shot 6-for-11 and tacked on four free throws and one make from behind the arc. His first bucket was a really nice dunk through contact under the rim and it felt like a tone setter. He missed four of his next five attempts, but some of them were really good looks that just did not fall. He used his quickness and soft touch to really put pressure on the Denver interior.

In the second half, though, Denver packed the paint any time AD put the ball on the floor. It would have been nice to see a post-up shot attempt in response to the adjustment. In the end, Denver did what Denver does: close out the game. Lakers fans, rest easy. You started the season by playing the toughest competition in the league and you hung around the whole time. As the team gets more comfortable with the new pieces, LA will turn into a problem. It will just take some time. As for Denver fans, you already know what to expect. Your team is dominant, and if they remain healthy, may be insurmountable.

Warriors vs. Suns (108-104 PHX)

The other game on opening night was really fun and came down to the wire. The game was tied with 5:10 to play. Unfortunately, neither team was at full strength as the Phoenix Suns were missing Bradley Beal and the Golden State Warriors were without Draymond Green. Still, fans were treated to a nice chess match between the squads.

First, it is important to give Jusuf Nurkic his flowers. He was awesome all night and more than proved he is the right big man for the Suns. Watch the sequence below.

Expect a steady diet of this all season long (especially with Beal back)

For the whole set, Nurkic remained in the middle as the primary screener for essentially every option. He screened for Grayson Allen to get the ball in the slot to initiate the action. The Suns then got into what appeared to be a shallow veer action, where Nurkic screened for a driving Devin Booker before setting a screen for Kevin Durant to get the ball at the top of the key. Durant’s gravity forced Kevon Looney into a tough spot, and Nurkic got maybe the easiest and-one ever. Nurkic had his hands all over the rest of the game.

This game was important not because it was on opening night, but because it gave us some insight into the way two of the projected best teams in the league are going to approach the rest of the season. As mentioned before, both teams were missing key starters. Obviously, not having these teams at full strength is disappointing, but we learned some things about each of them. We learned that the Warriors are really confident in their young guys, and that confidence is warranted. Both Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody played great basketball. Even if Kuminga made some poor decisions, he was a net positive for GSW. Once Draymond comes back into the lineup, the Warriors are going to be a deep team with plenty of experience. We also learned that dumb fouls and lax defense are going to be a sticking point for them, but hopefully Draymond can alleviate some of that when he returns.

What we learned from Phoenix is kind of what we already expected of them. They are really good. Sure, they lost a 15 point lead in the third quarter. But my goodness, they sure closed the game. The team just has so much firepower. Even on the other side of the ball, they were solid enough to beat a high profile Western Conference team. Early on, some of the players seemed confused about their pick and roll coverage, but they recovered well. And it felt like Josh Okogie was taking on Steph Curry as much as anyone can. Curry went 2-for-6 with Okogie as his primary defender. Really, it felt like the Suns did what they were supposed to do. Devin Booker got 32 points, KD constantly drew attention away from his teammates, Josh Okogie did the aforementioned, Nurkic set powerful screens, rebounded, and scored when called on. All this without Bradley Beal? Yeah, it seems as if the Suns are going to be exactly the problem we all thought they would be.

A Beginner’s Guide to the 2023-2024 NBA Season

The NBA is back! Tonight, the 2023-2024 NBA season begins. Whether you have been a fan for years or are just looking to start, it always helps to have a summer refresher before things get going. This summer was the cause of lots of excitement, and it is worth recounting. In the following paragraphs, we are going to give fans both old and new some things to be on the lookout for this season. Without further ado, here are the things to keep on your radar.

A Generational Talent in San Antonio?

If you’ve been living under a rock, the San Antonio Spurs were fortunate enough to get the number one pick in the latest draft and with it, they selected a young Frenchman by the name of Victor Wembanyama (aka Wemby). This is a huge deal for a couple reasons, the first being Wemby’s generational potential. Sports media has a proclivity for hyperbole, and the consensus is that Victor is the most high profile prospect since LeBron James. Talk about a high bar. Is he worth the hype?

Yes, he is. I have followed Wemby for a couple years now. He is the real deal. Will he reach the Hall of Fame heights people have predicted? Impossible to say. But here are the facts: he is 19 years of age, he’s 7’4 with an 8 ft. wingspan, he has guard skills, and he can legitimately defend all five positions. Despite that, though, will the American sports media hype machine chew him up and spit him out like so many other prospects before him?

No. Watching his preseason has been an absolute joy. He swats shots on closeouts, he dances through defenders, he dribbles under Reggie Bullock’s legs in what can only be described as the most disrespectful thing I have ever seen. The big question mark for Wemby doubters is his offense. Will be able to do the things he used to when he’s playing with the best athletes in the sport? The answer seems to be a resounding “Duh!” Again for the sake of argument, say his offense just never gets to the Kevin Durant levels people have set for him. He still confidently dribbles into unblockable, high percentage jumpers. He still puts all sorts of pressure on defenses when he rolls to the rim. The Spurs ran a play in which the 7’4 Wemby got an Iverson screen to get to the left elbow. Insanity. But again, for the sake of argument, let us imagine that the offense never ends up working out and the league “solves” the Wemby problem. He still adds arguably the most defensive value we have ever seen in the sport. He is going to be a problem for opponents for years. Selfishly, I want him to spend his entire career in San Antonio because I love to win and I despise sharing (I am openly a San Antonio fan and will not be apologizing). And look, these are huge expectations for a 19 year old kid. In this segment alone, he has been compared to LeBron James and Kevin Durant, and I literally just said “He still adds arguably the most defensive value we have ever seen in the sport.” All eyes are going to be on this kid, and despite the scrutiny, he will succeed.

This season, Full Court Dime is going to have extensive coverage of Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs for our coverage entitled “Wemby Watch,” so be sure to stay tuned.

Suns Stack Stars

The Phoenix Suns have somehow been able to build a complete roster despite paying Devin Booker, acquiring Kevin Durant, and absorbing Bradley Beal’s massive contract. After the trade that landed them Beal, the speculation on their roster prospects was rampant. Somehow they’ve done what no one thought possible: they have a roster deep enough to make a run at a championship.

They added Grayson Allen, Bol Bol, Jusuf Nurkic, and somehow swung an Eric Gordon acquisition. The roster looks good on paper. There are a variety of skills, good spacing, and flexible lineup potential. Sure, they lost Deandre Ayton in a massive three-way trade, and honestly, they may have made up for it. Only time will tell if the team is able to make all of the pieces fit together, but the Suns are a team to keep an eye on in the West. And speaking of the West…

Loaded Lakers

I know Laker Nation is always supremely confident in their team, even when that confidence has not been warranted. However, coming into this season, the Lakers look dangerous. They acquired some solid pieces with that sweet LA money. There are recognizable names donning the purple and gold for the first time this season, including Gabe Vincent, Taurean Prince, Jaxson Hayes, and Christian Wood. And of course LeBron James and Anthony Davis are returning for another championship push.

On paper, the Lakers are horrifying. They now have a bunch of big wings with defensive switchability, they have surrounded LeBron and AD with shooters, and head coach Darvin Ham has a full season of experience under his belt. If the team can get on the same page and remain healthy, they stand to dominate the league.

Dame Time for Bucks

Another team poised for domination is the new-look Milwaukee Bucks. In a massive trade, the Bucks acquired Damian Lillard. They now have a three-pronged attack consisting of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and Damian Lillard. It goes without saying, but I’m going to say it anyway: YIKES. The firepower on this team is insane, and opponents are going to struggle trying to find a way to slow it down. We have already covered this trade, so we will summarize with this: watch out for the Bucks train, because it is liable to steam roll through the league. Make no mistake, though. The competition at the top is poised to be intense.

The Contenders

Every season, pundits are pretty quickly grilled about their potential championship winners. It is impossible to tell who is going to win it all early on in the season, but facts have never gotten in the way of stoking the fires of controversy. In saying that though, there are teams who are seemingly head-and-shoulders above the rest. As mentioned previously, the Bucks, Lakers, and Suns all have a good chance of hoisting the Larry O’Brien trophy come season’s end. However, it would be dishonest to say those are the only teams with a chance. The reigning champion Denver Nuggets have had almost no roster movement in the offseason, and they ended things in dominant fashion. They are still dangerous, and are definitely looking to get their dynasty started.

The Boston Celtics also seem primed to finally make the jump from legitimate contender to champion. They acquired Kristaps Porziņģis and Jrue Holiday, and those two guys are going to be huge contributors if the preseason is anything to go by. On top of that, the organization locked down Jaylen Brown and secured the partnership of him and Jayson Tatum for at least the next few years. For the boys in Boston, there is no better time to win than right now. If they fail to do so, it will be a summer of hard decisions for the front office.

The Golden State Warriors are still looming as well. The team added Chris Paul to the roster and while it is unclear how the acquisition will play out in the long term, it is probably going to be a net positive. Though they failed to address their biggest weakness (which is size) in a way fans would have liked, they did add Dario Saric who gives them some much needed big man depth. They still have Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga who will hopefully see some actual playing time this season. And of course they have their triumvirate of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green. The Warriors have a proven track record: if they are in the mix, they have a shot to win, and they are most certainly in the mix on paper.

And lest we forget the oft tossed aside Miami Heat. One of these days, the media will stop counting the team from South Beach out. There is no team who better embodies the fighting spirit than the Heat. If the above comment about the Warriors is true, then it is doubly so for the Heat. If they are in the playoffs, they believe they can win. This just might be the year they do so. Heat culture is real, and it has the potential to burn opponents. I have a feeling that since the Heat missed out on the Damian Lillard sweepstakes, they are going to take a big swing for a star at some point during the season. Be on guard, because the Heat are coming.

But hey, not every team can win it all. There is only one trophy, after all. While some teams are looking to take the next step and become immortalized in the NBA forever, others are looking to get something new off the ground, which is equally as exciting.

The Newcomers (hopefully)

One of the best things about the beginning of the season is watching up-and-comers make the jump to the here-and-nowers. The league certainly has some squads looking to do just that. If you are a new fan in need of a team to ravenously support, the following might prove to be the perfect fit.

The most intriguing team in the coming season is going to be the Oklahoma City Thunder. They have a roster filled to bursting with young talent, including a first team All-NBA selection last season in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Chet Holmgren will actually get to play this season. They have two young studs both named Jaylin Williams (though one spells it “Jalen”). Make no mistake about it: the Thunder are going to take a big leap this season. If you are someone who likes to be early to the party, it might pay off to be a Thunder fan right now.

Another team to keep an eye on is the Portland Trail Blazers. Will they shock everyone in the same way the Thunder will? Probably not, however they will be worth tuning into. They are another young team who quietly had a really good offseason, which feels weird to write given they had the second pick in the draft and had to trade away Damian Lillard. Odd. Digression aside, the team is really exciting to think about. Scoot Henderson will be the big draw, but the team added Robert Williams, Deandre Ayton, and Malcolm Brogdon. Not to mention Shaedon Sharpe (look for him to have a nice jump in numbers this season). The Blazers might not shock the world with their win column, but the front office really seems to be building something special. Time will tell.

The Detroit Pistons also deserve to be in this conversation. Yet again, a roster full of young potential. Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren, James Wiseman, and rookie Ausar Thompson make a core that tempts the imagination with something dangerous: hope. The city of Detroit has had little luck with their Pistons for a long time now. But Motor City, rejoice! You have a young squad who is going to be worth watching. For the sake of fans, I hope the Pistons can put something special together. Not so bold prediction: the Pistons will make the play-in game this season, and they may even sneak their way into the playoffs. Too early to tell, but not too early to dream.

And that concludes some of our biggest storylines coming into the 2023-2024 NBA season. These are going to be things we at Full Court Dime are following closely, and we would be honored if you would join us for our coverage and thoughts. As said before, we will be tuning in to every single San Antonio Spurs game for our “Wemby Watch,” a breakdown of the most hyped NBA prospect since LeBron James. We will also be on the lookout for teams who shock the league, be they newcomers or familiar faces. We will have film breakdown, player analysis, and so much more. Strap in, basketball fans. This is going to be a season to remember.

Dame Time in Milwaukee

Damian Lillard is headed to Milwaukee in a three team deal that changes scenery for Deandre Ayton, Jrue Holiday

In a stunning turn of events, the Milwaukee Bucks have acquired Damian Lillard in a three team trade with the Portland Trail Blazers and the Phoenix Suns.

Wow. What a bombshell. Certainly something I didn’t see coming. But now the question is: how much better did all the teams involved get?

Milwaukee Bucks

To be short and sweet, the Bucks just got way better. Though they lost Jrue Holiday and Grayson Allen, that is a small price to pay for one of the best scorers of his generation. Dame and Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo are cut from the same cloth. They are both legendarily hard workers from humble hoops beginnings, and they both have captured the hearts of their respective franchises. Together, they are going to be absolutely electric.

In total, the Bucks didn’t give up much. Yes, the loss of Jrue Holiday is going to be felt, but is his lauded defense really going to be missed when Dame is liable to go nuclear at any moment? Probably not. Lillard’s high basketball IQ is going to fit right into the void left by Holiday’s departure. As much love as Jrue Holiday gets (and frankly deserves), he is not the caliber of player Dame is. This is a win for Milwaukee, even with the additional losses of Grayson Allen and a first round draft pick in 2029. The trio of Giannis, Dame, and Khris Middleton is going to be one to watch this season, and no doubt newly crowned head coach Adrian Griffin is going to have a field day crafting an offense for them. If the Bucks can keep their defensive mentality intact, they are automatically a problem in the Eastern Conference.

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers obviously made a big fuss once Lillard’s desire to be traded became clear. They were adamant that only the best of deals would be accepted. For whatever reason, Lillard’s desired landing spot of Miami never manifested a deal the team executives could stomach. To the credit of the organization, the Blazers’ patience paid off. So what did they get?

Jrue Holiday is a win for any team looking to win. He’s consistently among the best defenders in the league and has stumped all manner of offensive firepower throughout his career. On top of that, he is a dependable point guard in essentially any offense. He will be an immediate boon to a team brimming with young talent at the guard position due to his experience and professionalism. I’m expecting him and Scoot Henderson to become fast friends, and if you’re a Blazers fan or executive, that’s the best thing that could happen in your locker room.

But Portland also acquired Deandre Ayton. I have made my love for Ayton well known. He is a great young talent, and when he’s on, he’s on. He’s a big body center that is going to get you a double-double every night and provide some good protection around the rim. On top of that, his offense has the two best things a center could offer: efficiency and variety. His well documented disgruntlement with the Suns organization led to some tough scenes the past couple years, but I believe the change of scenery will do him wonders. He’s getting to join a team with solid guard play that can get him his touches in the flow of the offense. In my opinion, if this trade has a “winner,” Portland has a slight edge due to the foundation they have set up for their future.

Phoenix Suns

Did the Phoenix Suns have the best offseason in the league? There is definitely a case to be made, and they added to that case in a subtle way. Due to their big spending in terms of current contracts and trade acquisitions, the big question for the Suns was their ability to fill out the rest of the roster. After all, they sufficiently proved that a star studded but top heavy roster is not enough to win a championship (or even make it out of the Western Conference). The best version of the team’s current iteration came when they went to the Finals in 2021. I would never insinuate adding Kevin Durant to your team makes it worse, but if you fail to add key role players to balance the bench, you’ve basically got the equivalent of a filet mignon at a Waffle House: amazing in the beginning, but you may hate yourself for it during the back half of the night.

But I digress. The Suns have put out some fires. Not only have they added Eric Gordon, but in this three team trade, they got Nassir Little, Keon Johnson, and Jusuf Nurkic. Little and Johnson are young projects, but they have some promise. I expect Little in particular to make a jump this season. The real value added comes from Nurkic, though. An experienced, efficient big man who sets screens as if he is made of concrete. His screening ability coupled with his nice touch are going to put opposing defenses in scenarios where they are having to chase KD, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal all over the floor. If they lock all of those guys down, there’s still a chance for Nurkic to get the ball in a favorable position. Not a winning proposition in most cases.

I wish they could have added a little more defensive depth, but going all in on offense may prove to work for them (despite the obvious history of it not working out for anyone).

All told, it really does seem as if every team got better. The Blazers got to offload their grumpy superstar while receiving some real value in return, the Suns filled out the bench with some promising young guards while also getting a quality starting center, and the Bucks kept Giannis happy by bringing one of the most high profile players in the league to his doorstep. It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out come tip-off time, but know this: if these teams were for some reason not already on your radar, you might want to go ahead and plan to watch. The season is already proving to be an exciting one.

Draymond Green on the Move?

Just because you can do something, doesn’t mean you should.

Polarizing Golden State forward Draymond Green recently opted out of the last year of his contract to pursue unrestricted free agency for the first time. Let’s get this out of the way at the top: he’s not going anywhere. He has said on his podcast he believes this version of the Warriors still has juice in the tank and at least one more championship in them. The prominent theory is that Dray is simply looking to take a team friendly deal in order to free up some cap space in the quickly approaching second apron era of the most recent CBA. Regardless, the possibility of his departure exists, and it would be criminal to ignore the options. So as a fandom, we have to ask ourselves: where can Draymond land?

But first, some notes. Draymond’s fit on other teams is a bit… polarizing. After all, he has only ever played with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. He even got some quality years with Kevin Durant. Let us not forget the year when Dray was all on his own and struggling. Draymond is an effective maximizer. He knows what his teammates need from him in order to be successful. However, he has become borderline unplayable on offense without the right pieces in place. He can’t shoot or create his own shots, and he doesn’t have a handle that can break down a defense. Even with those issues, his value to Golden State is undeniable. They would be foolish to let him go, but other teams might be equally foolish to pick him up unless they have a clearly defined plan for him. Without further ado, let’s get started.

Dallas Mavericks

The Dallas Mavericks are a defensive trainwreck. They earned their way to the 24th defensive rating this past season according to Basketball Reference. The inability to stop other teams from scoring proved to be a nightmare all season long, particularly at the PF position. As a unit, the Mavs were a -6.9 PER at the four spot. The Kyrie Irving experiment has also largely been a failure. He and Luka Doncic are just not a good fit together.

Despite these warts, though, there is hope. They have a young guard in Jaden Hardy who could blossom into what they need beside Luka. Speaking of Luka, they have him locked up through the 2025-26 season, so he’s not going anywhere. They have a bunch of guys who could be really special on the defensive end, they just need someone to help them put it all together. Enter Draymond Green.

Green’s purpose would be threefold. First, and the most immediately noticeable, would be the defensive stuff. Green’s a high level defender and has been for a long time now. His versatility and ability to communicate on that end would be a boon to a team who has the pieces the Mavs do. Second, he would be bringing championship experience and veteran leadership to a team found lacking in those departments. Third, and arguably most importantly, he would be adding a playmaking element. Green’s ability to run an offense and make the right decisions could prove valuable to Luka’s development as he could work more off the ball. Draymond’s other offensive shortcomings would be a concern, but the Mavs had the 6th highest offensive rating in the league. Surely head coach and Hall of Famer Jason Kidd could find a way to minimize those downsides.

Oklahoma City Thunder

OKC has an interesting future brewing. Sam Presti has proven time and again to be one of the best team builders in the NBA. They have a promising young core and a recently minted first team All-NBA selectee in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Josh Giddey is a joy to watch, both Jalen Williams and Jaylin Williams are going to be good pieces, and despite Chet Holmgren not having played in the NBA yet, he’s got massive potential. They are a young, fiery team that is going to take some people by surprise next season.

But they are missing veteran presence. Dario Saric is their most experienced player and he’s only been in the league since 2016. Draymond Green would immediately be the adult in the room, bringing much needed experience to the squad. OKC was also a middle of the pack team defensively throughout the season, and with a hopefully healthy Holmgren and Green, scoring would be an absolute nightmare for other teams as they tried to gameplan for Green, Holmgren, Jaylin Williams, and SGA. They also wouldn’t require much offensively from Draymond in terms of scoring. It could be a fun fit.

LA Lakers

This is honestly the laziest and least interesting answer. The first order of business for the Lakers should be re-signing Austin Reeves, Rui Hachimura, and Lonnie Walker IV. But for the sake of the exercise, what would be the benefit of putting Draymond Green on this roster as currently constructed? The Lakers are already trying to get Chris Paul. There are on-going discussions about giving D’Angelo Russell a front-loaded contract to free them up on the back end. What role on the Lakers would Draymond Green fill? Certainly not the emotional heart of the team. The Lakers are not shorthanded on the defensive end, and offensively Green would add nothing the Lakers don’t already have. The fact that this is a discussion is confusing as there would be no clear advantage for the Lakers to acquire Green.

There could be an argument made for the defensive intensity Dray would give the Lakers, but as previously stated, it is a weak one. Having him and Anthony Davis on the floor at the same time could prove to be a real head scratcher for teams in the Western Conference. Perhaps Draymond could have helped the Lakers overcome Denver? I jest, of course, but the LA front office has been known for its ~~delusions~~ swing-for-the-fences approach.

New York Knicks

New York faithful are always pulling for the biggest names in the game to go to the city that never sleeps. Could they use Draymond? Would they even want him? Well they could certainly use him in some capacity. His defensive versatility would bolster the ranks of a team who finished with the 19th defensive rating in the league. Despite the woes of a Tom Thibodeau coached team, the man still knows a thing or two about coaching defense in the NBA. Draymond’s aforementioned abilities would surely not go amiss with Thibs at the helm. Also, the New York roster is dominated by guards. Perhaps adding another big with defensive switchability would help them out.

But the issue comes in, once again, with the offensive side of the ball. Make no mistake, the Warriors value Dray more than any other team in the league, especially at this point in his career. The Knicks need more than defensive help, and Green doesn’t have the offensive skill set to put them over the edge. Still, the Knicks love to shoot themselves in the foot with poor roster construction featuring big names, so who knows?

Cleveland Cavaliers

I know, I know, just hear me out. The Cavs boasted the best defense in the league during the season. Darius Garland has cemented himself as one of the top young playmakers in the league. They have Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen defensively wreaking mayhem in the front court. What could they possibly need Draymond Green for?

The reality is they do not need him for his defense or playmaking chops. Both would certainly be appreciated, mind you. But I think his real value would come in the form of mentorship. The playoffs made it clear that the Cavs still have some growing pains, and Green could be just the guy to help them work the kinks out. His experience in playing with multiple ball dominant stars could really help the Cavs figure some things out about their offensive identity, which looked puzzlingly faceless in the postseason at the worst possible times. Plus, allowing Green to mentor a potentially generational defensive talent in Mobley could really push the latter over the edge in terms of ceiling. The only real difficulty would be finding Green some playing time. He’d likely have to take a backseat, and while I think he would be willing to do that to win a championship, are the Cavs close enough to the goal for him to consider the move?

To reiterate, I personally believe Draymond Green is going to retire as a Warrior. After reviewing his fit with other teams, Golden State is the only team really poised to maximize his benefits and mitigate his downsides as they’ve done his entire career. Warriors faithful can only hope he opted out of his contract to take a more team friendly deal to alleviate some cap space. All said, the fact he has not stated his intentions explicitly could mean he’s on the move, and the NBA will just have to wait and see what the future holds for the four-time champion.

Jokic, Murray Make History in Game 3 Victory

Someone has to say it: Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are really good at basketball. Like, really good. They just made history as the first teammates in the NBA to both have a 30 point triple-double in the same Finals game. An insane stat, and one that needs some context. So how exactly did the dynamic duo go absolutely nuclear on the Miami Heat?

The combined shot chart for Murray and Jokic. Ridiculous.

We’ll start with the first quarter and work our way from there. The first good look we got at the Murray-Jokic P&R came at roughly 10:32 in the first quarter. Defensively, Miami looked to make paint touches difficult. Erik Spoelstra’s squad put Bam Adebayo on Jokic, Jimmy Butler on Murray, and Kevin Love on Aaron Gordon. That let the Heat keep a big body on Gordon without sacrificing defense on Jokic. It also meant Murray was going to need his best to fend off Butler. All said, shots inside were supposed to be hard to come by. Cue the P&R. Jimmy Butler fell behind when Jokic got Murray the ball, which put Kevin Love in a difficult spot. He opted to take away the roll from Jokic. But Gabe Vincent recognized what was happening, so he left his man to pack the paint. Problem is, Murray already had a great look at the basket and was able to score with ease.

A couple possessions later, Murray got another great look despite really poor spacing on the part of his teammates. Watch the play below.

Now, Butler nearly picked Murray’s pocket. The aforementioned poor spacing allowed Vincent to take a swipe at the ball, which forced Murray to put the ball back into Butler’s range. After the poke, though, no Heat players were able to recover the ball. Max Strus had to stick with Michael Porter Jr. to not give up a wide open triple. But the real action occurred down low. Notice, the Heat are super concerned about the size Denver had inside. Kevin Love did not want to leave Aaron Gordon too early, and Bam had his hands full with Jokic. All those factors meant Murray could just float into the loose ball with great positioning and an easy look.

The next possession, the P&R forced the Heat to switch, putting Butler on Jokic in the post. Jimmy is a strong guy, but he’s just not big enough to stop Jokic once he gets deep position. Denver used the P&R mainly to attack the Heat high, though they threw some different looks at them from time to time. At 8:23 for example, Jokic set a back screen to allow Murray to use his speed to get into space. The solid screen slowed Jimmy, Bam was forced to stop the ball, and the pair was unable to recover enough to stop a wide open close range jumper.

Particularly infuriating is the last shot. Jokic looks like a grown man playing on a mini-hoop. He has three defenders in his proximity. Jimmy is right next to him! Ridiculous (and borderline unfair). The real highlights are in the second and third quarters, though. RADIATION WARNING: the boys are about to go nuclear.

Murray had an absolute heater in the second quarter. After missing his first attempt (an open three from the left corner), Jamal decided he just wasn’t going to do that anymore. His second attempt was a quick stepback on the left wing over the outstretched arm of Bam with an expiring shot clock. Swish. His third attempt was another three, by way of the tried and true P&R with his Serbian big man. The action forced a switch, Bam sagged off, and Murray immediately fired. Swish. Two minutes later, Caleb Martin made the baffling decision to double a Jokic backdown, leaving Murray wide open for another bomb. Swish. His final shot of the quarter was the result of some great dribble penetration off the P&R again. Denver had the strong side corner loaded with two players and Jokic stepped out to the arc after his screen. Caleb Martin actually fought over the screen well enough to stick to Murray’s hip, and with Jokic on the three point line, Bam was able to provide extra help on the drive. However, a quick hesitation and slight head fake from Jamal froze the Heat just enough to get to the cup.

Not to be outdone, Jokic turned things up in the third quarter of action. To open the quarter, the Nuggets ran a set in which Jokic set a flex screen for MPJ before receiving a pindown from Murray. Jokic caught the ball at the free throw line and took advantage of the slightest hesitancy from the defense to knock down a shot. He then showed off his guard skills as he attacked a long closeout with a pump fake, drive, and sweet finger roll. He also busted out his signature Sombor Shuffle on Kevin Love at the free throw line. Another pump fake got Bam on his toes, and Gordon set a pick that forced Love to switch. He didn’t stand a chance. Then he hit an awkward floater on Vincent, before deciding ,”You know what? I’m just gonna shoot a three.” A three he hit, by the way. He only missed his last shot of the quarter due to a great block by Zeller on the weak side help.

I won’t continue to belabor the point. Both guys scored with ease, obviously, but they also just made the right passes the whole game. On top of that, Jokic was a MONSTER on the boards. Several times throughout the game I audibly asked “What are the Heat supposed to do?” It’s a question I still do not have an answer for. To their credit, it felt like Miami was in the game the whole time. They were tied at the end of the first quarter and only down five at halftime. The second half, they just lost their legs. There is hope for Miami, but it unfortunately seems to be fading. My original prediction (which I regrettably did not publish) was Nuggets in six, with Miami taking games two and four. Erik Spoelstra has gotten his guys to respond well throughout not only these playoffs, but the entire season in general. Hopefully, he can do it again when the Heat look to take a win at home tonight.

Spoelstra’s Big Brain Boosts Heat in Game 2 Win

Heat Culture steals home court advantage from lax Nuggets.

The Miami Heat did not make the NBA Finals due to some fluke or mistake. They earned the right to play for a championship just as much as the Denver Nuggets did. The Heat play with a mentality that demands focus and intensity. If a team can play with those traits, they will be in the mix to win it all. This is a message to all who doubted the Heat: continue doing so at your own peril. Because they just stole home court advantage from the best team in the playoffs, and they did it beautifully.

Let’s just get this out of the way at the top: the Nuggets looked sloppy from the opening tip. The defense in particular was just horrendous. We need look no further than the performance Max Strus put on in the opening quarter. The Heat’s first bucket at 11:30 was a wide open look from deep by Strus off an inbound. The play involved the two worst defenders on the Denver starting squad and the Heat capitalized. Strus lobbed the ball up to Bam Adebayo at the free throw line. He then received double pin downs to get a look from the wing. Normally, the Nuggets would want to switch those screens, but Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. just stand around and watch Kentavious Caldwell-Pope fight for his life on screens from Gabe Vincent and Kevin Love. A horrible way to start a Finals game.

But that was only the first drop of a downpour from Strus. When Miami was able to get into their halfcourt offense, the Strus got loose. On a couple shots, he was simply able to leak out of a screen and get to his spot. The first time, it appeared he just took advantage of MPJ’s less than stellar defensive awareness. Defensively, the whole Nuggets squad looked lost. KCP and Murray both point to Strus wide open in the corner as if it was going to be enough to get a brick out of him. Ideally, instead of pointing, Murray could have closed out on the corner. That would have left Aaron Gordon with two bodies, and MPJ could have ‘X’d,” or run across the court to pick up the guy Gordon had to leave (in this case, it would have been Jimmy Butler). Even if that is not what is coached in Denver, it would have been better than leaving Max Strus of all people wide open for a corner three. Or, here’s a thought: MPJ and KCP could have just switched the action at the point of attack. Poor communication was a theme the whole night for the home team. Strus got a similar bucket at the 5:30 mark in the first because Murray and Gordon just failed to communicate on the simple P&R.

The real talking point for the game is the popular “Make Jokic a scorer” narrative. Rather, the real talking point is the coaching of Erik Spoelstra. The Heat executed flawlessly down the stretch, and it was not due to them “making Jokic a scorer.” Take their zone defense in the fourth quarter for example. It was a shifting blob whose sole purpose was to deny Jokic high post touches near the free throw line. It was suffocating and morphing, and it isn’t the result of players who are defensive geniuses, it is the result of excellent coaching. But that was only the fourth quarter. What about the rest of the game?

The addition of Kevin Love back into the starting lineup seems like a no-brainer, but there are coaches in the league who are scared to pull the trigger in big situations. Not so with Spo. Putting Love on the floor gave the Heat size, IQ, and a shooting threat. Notice, Denver was unable to get the easy matchups for Aaron Gordon they got in the first game. It was a lot tougher to find a smaller guy to bully. More great coaching shined through in offensive execution throughout the contest.

Bam Adebayo is the key to the series for Miami. For them to win, Bam has to be the best version of himself. He does NOT need to score 20 points a night for them to hoist the trophy. Rather, he has to be Bam Prime™. In Game 2, he was just that. Take a look at his shot chart.

Those makes around the free throw line were the results of great looks out of P&R when receiving a pocket pass. He absolutely killed the Nuggets with just roll actions. Miami really capitalized on Jokic’s slow moving feet to get Bam in scoring positions out of these looks. Great stuff.

The Heat also did well in running split actions with Bam in the high post. Notice these two look off the exact same play. Also notice how close together they occurred. Look for these plays to be a bigger part of Miami’s offensive diet going into the next game.

A quick aside: the thing I love about the two above plays is not just the execution, but the attitude. The Gabe Vincent smirk at Christian Braun and Duncan Robinson flex are a horrible sight if you are a Nugget. The worst thing Miami can have is swag. Because once they turn it on, they are not going to turn it off under any circumstances. Just ask the Celtics, Bucks, and 76ers.

For the Nuggets faithful, there is no need to panic yet. As I said at the top, the Nuggets played sloppily the whole game and still had a chance to win. Fouling three point shooters and not communicating on defense only put Denver down by three. By no means is that meant to be a slight to the Heat. They earned the win fair and square by playing better. But the Denver film session for Game 2 no doubt lit a fire underneath Mike Malone’s squad. However, Spoelstra’s big basketball IQ got the Heat the win, and more importantly, it got them home court advantage. Denver is going to have to come up with some strategies themselves if they hope to win Game 3 on June 7th.

Denver Dominates Game 1 of NBA Finals

The Nuggets made a statement to open the series.

There were some musings about just how ready the Denver Nuggets would be to face the Miami Heat in Game 1 of the Finals. After all, they had a long time to rest. Ten days of relaxation can prove detrimental to a team’s rhythm, but not so with the Nuggets. They have played the entire season for this series. Fittingly, the Nuggets, who have been doubted throughout the season despite locking up the highest seed in the Western Conference, are facing the oft tossed aside Miami Heat, who were not going to make it out of the play-off. Then they were doomed to lose in the opening round. Then, they surely were not going to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. Then there was talk about their inevitable demise at the hands of the Celtics. This is a team that has been doubted at every stage, and it would be foolish to continue doing so. However, in the opening game of the Finals, the Nuggets did not make that critical error. They came not just to play, but to dominate. Let’s talk about how they did it.

For starters, the Nuggets made a statement early: win by any means necessary. Their star point center Nikola Jokic, who is averaging 29.8 points per game in the playoffs, only attempted three field goals in the first half. The Nuggets still walked into the locker room to the tune of a 17 point lead. Jokic was clearly going to pick his spots to open the series. Instead of scoring, he did what he was born to do: facilitate the offense. The Nuggets got efficient, high scoring offense from Aaron Gordon in the first quarter. But it didn’t look like things would start off that way. In fact, it appeared as if the Heat were daring him to take as many shots as he wanted. At 10:48 in the first quarter, Denver ran their familiar pistol action they call “2.” Gordon was firmly parked in the weak side corner after setting a pin-down for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as usual. But Jimmy Butler was guarding him, and he decided to blitz Jokic when he got good paint position on Bam Adebayo. Jokic made the right play and sent the ball to Gordon, who promptly air balled. Miami showed their hand early. They were going to dare Gordon to take those shots. However, he decided he would not settle.

Gordon went to work after the miss. He started by getting a layup on Jimmy Butler with some dribble penetration. Then at 9:32, he was able to get a switch that brought 6’2 Gabe Vincent into the danger zone. Gordon’s superior size and strength made it all too easy to get a clean look at the basket, and he emphatically threw down a two handed dunk. His main attack happened in transition though. After missed shots, Gordon leaked out and looked to establish a seal deep in the paint on whoever was unfortunate enough to wander down there. He bullied a variety of bodies. The aforementioned Vincent, Max Strus, Caleb Martin. Gordon was out looking for blood, and he found it early. Even when he was denied good position, he just used his strength to get to the rim. At times, it looked like he was playing with high schoolers. AG scored 12 of Denver’s 29 points in the first quarter, and he did it by finding the Heat’s smaller players. Just take a look at this shot chart.

But AG wasn’t the only guy on the court hooping. Bam had himself a solid first half as well. He operated particularly well out of the pick-and-roll, being the recipient of pocket passes that freed him up to shoot from midrange. He also showed some nice touch on floaters and baby hooks. He really took advantage of situations in which Jokic had to cheat off of him and be the help defender. It felt like Bam was the driving force in keeping Miami alive as the game progressed. What I personally enjoyed the most from Bam was his willingness to shoot off the dribble. In the first half alone, there were a few instances where he was able to leverage his quickness against Jokic simply by making him fear a drive. If Bam dribbled and Jokic backed up, Adebayo was letting it fly. Great stuff.

Despite Bam’s efforts, though, it never really felt like the game was close. The final score is deceptive in that regard. Even when they were able to string together stops, their shooters were ice cold. Max Stus missed all of his 10 shots. Caleb Martin went 1-7. Duncan Robinson missed all but one of his attempts. Just a tough night. Obviously, if the shots are not falling your way, you have to get stops on the other end. The vaunted Miami defense never really showed its face, though there were some positives. They allowed only six offensive rebounds, which was a huge concern coming into this game. They also held the Nuggets to 29.6% from three. Despite the good, there were just some confusing moments. Early on, when Gordon took that three from the corner, he was open because Jokic was doubled. In the second quarter, around the 5:34 mark, Kyle Lowry sent Haywood Highsmith to double Jokic from the same corner. The enormous passer then hit Bruce Brown for a wide open three. Not a recipe for success in the long run.

Miami also played drop coverage on the Jamal Murray-Jokic P&R, and Murray made them pay dearly. He just wandered into quality looks. To his credit, he still had to hit the shots, but he wasn’t being forced into tough ones for the most part. All that said, I am not concerned about the defense. Miami is in the Finals specifically because of their defense. The larger concern is the offense. As I said before, Miami struggled to find their shot, but more worryingly, they were unable to find the free throw line.

Miami set an unfortunate Finals record: least free throws attempted, which is emblematic of a larger issue. The Heat did not put nearly enough pressure on the Nuggets’ interior defense. Counting floaters and dunks, the Heat attempted 12 layup or layup adjacent shots. For comparison, the Nuggets attempted 22. The whole game, it felt as if Miami just was not aggressive on the offensive end. Examine these shot charts:

Denver

Miami

The biggest eye catcher in these charts is undoubtedly the makes in the paint. Now, critical analysis of these charts reveals a strange truth: both teams took roughly the same percentage of their shots in the paint. That’s not the issue. The issue is the type of shots being taken. Notice the amount of misses in the Heat chart and where they are. High concentrations around the circle and just outside the restricted zone. Those are pullup jumpers, floaters, hook shots, etc. Now look at those same areas on Denver’s chart. So many of their attempts were much closer to the basket and came off of drives or post activity. Miami’s willingness to settle offensively is what really hurt them. Sure, hitting more shots from outside the arc would have been nice, but their inability to get to the free throw line meant they had almost no easy opportunities to stop the bleeding when Denver went on a run. So what can they do come game two?

Well, they played their zone defense excellently when Jokic was off the floor. Even when he came back in after half time, there were flashes of frustration for the Nuggets when the Heat stuck with their zone. Obviously, playing a zone against a man who was born to bust them is not a great long term strategy, but mixing more of it into the action every once in a while might help throw off the Nuggets just enough to steal a win. On the offensive end, the Heat got some excellent looks when they pulled Jokic away from Bam in P&R. Bam’s versatility off the dribble is going to be a real asset in this series and hopefully he can continue to get some more shots as things progress. He already had the most shots for Miami, so I expect them to keep going back to him. Then there’s of course Jimmy Butler. He didn’t exactly have a bad game. He did the things Jimmy Butler is supposed to: bring the hustle, play good defense, and facilitate the action. But they need more from him. Regardless of the outcome, Jimmy needs to shoot 20 shots every game. He and Gabe Vincent took the same amount of shots. By no means is that meant to belittle Vincent. I just think Jimmy needs to continue to be aggressive. I would love for him to stop settling for so many pullups and use his craftiness to get defenders in the air once he gets into the paint. The team needs him to get to the free throw line. If Jimmy is going to the line, everyone else is going to be more aggressive as well.

If you are a Heat fan, don’t panic yet. Expect Coach Spo to cook some stuff up to shock the basketball world. This team can go nuclear at the press of a button, meaning their shooting woes cannot last forever. Haywood Highsmith, Kyle Lowry, and Gabe Vincent made some Nuggets fans sit a little straighter in the fourth quarter as they refused to lay down and die. Miami went 12-20 in the fourth, even bringing the game within single digits near the end. Make no mistake, it will be an uphill battle. But the team from south Florida made it this far for a reason. Expect a big response when both teams face off for Game 2 of the NBA Finals on June 4th.

Defense, Hot Shooting Energizes Surging Celtics

Last night’s contest was tough to watch. The level of execution we have come to expect from the Miami Heat in these playoffs simply was not present. The blame can solely be placed on the shoulders of the Boston Celtics. Specifically, their defense. It was an incredible display, and it looks like the Celtics finally decided to lock in. Let’s take a closer look.

The offensive woes for the Heat were apparent from the opening tip. Their first possession ended in a turnover, and it would be prophetic for the rest of the game. The first possession of the game was nothing more than a statement by the Boston Celtics: “We’re here, and we’re not going away.” After the Heat got control of the initial tip, they ran a set where Bam Adebayo had the ball halfway between the three point line and halfcourt. Al Horford immediately and energetically closed the distance with active hands. The action was designed to get Max Strus the ball on the wing. In fairness, it did just that, but Jaylen Brown was with him every step of the way. Jimmy Butler was supposed to give Bam a solid screen to free him up in the corner, but Horford pursued relentlessly to body Bam before he could catch the ball. Normally, this set would be used to get Bam an opportunity to make something happen off the dribble. However, Marcus Smart was lurking, and he took advantage of Jimmy Butler moving up too high at the top of the key. All it took was a dig and poke. Bam lost his dribble, Smart hit the deck for the loose ball. Turnover. A sign of things to come.

A couple possessions later, 10:50 on the clock. Kyle Lowry ran a P&R with Bam. Lowry got a drive opportunity on Derrick White. Now, please study the very professional (and admittedly very reductive) graphic below and guess who is open on the Lowry drive. Take as much time as you need.

Now, just looking at that picture, it’s really easy to say, “Oh, Bam is open on the roll at the free throw line,” or, “Jimmy is open in the corner!” But the guy cheating off of Jimmy is Jayson Tatum, and the defender closest to Bam on the wing is Marcus Smart. This particular situation is worsened by Lowry’s own comparatively small size. Make no mistake, it was a tough spot to be in, though it is probably safe to say that throwing the ball over THREE defenders to get the ball into Kevin Love’s hands in the corner is the worst possible pass. White was able to get a hand on it and Brown came away with the ball. Rough start for Erik Spoelstra’s squad, and it didn’t get much better.

At 8:40 left to play, Smart pressured Lowry all the way up the court off the inbound. He received stagger screens designed to either give him a mismatch up top, Butler a mismatch on the wing, or Bam a mismatch in the mid post. Great design. Bam got Tatum and Lowry let the big man get to work. However, staunch defense from Tatum forced Bam into a bad situation: a dribble pickup directly under the basket. Butler once again ventured too close to half court and his man was able to dig down on help. Horford did the same as he helped off of Lowry. As Bam looked for a way out, he traveled. The third turnover in less than four minutes of action.

The Heat would give the ball away a total of 10 times in the first half, which produced a whopping 22.2 turnover ratio. For reference, that is double the turnovers and TO ratio of the Celtics. It’s already tough to win in the playoffs, but giving the ball away almost guarantees defeat. The Celtics generated 55.5% of their first half points off turnovers. Truly unacceptable at this stage in the game.

So what does Miami do? After all, their primary ball handlers are hurt. How can they generate some offense without turning the ball over or putting themselves in tough spots? For one, they need more Jimmy-Bam P&R. The stars have to be more aggressive. During the regular season, Jimmy Butler was 28th in P&R points per possession (1.09 PPP). Al Horford is a solid defender, but he cannot stop Bam if he decides to go upstairs for a lob off a roll. At this point, Miami players need to see the ball go through the basket by any means necessary.

It also might be time to move Duncan Robinson to the starting lineup. What he lacks on defense, he makes up for on the offensive side of the ball. He played very well in Game 5, and he showed off some other scoring options when the Celtics ran him off the three point line. So start Butler, Bam, Robinson, Caleb Martin, Kevin Love. If the Heat really want to keep going to the zone defense, they should be able to cover up some of their weaknesses on that end with this lineup. Haywood Highsmith provided some great offensive value off the bench and he could do so again. Having a secondary lineup that consists of Lowry, Highsmith, Bam, Jimmy, and Strus could prove effective. At this point, Miami has to be willing to try anything to get just one more win.

Finally, I know I just said something about the zone defense. Miami has taken a definite liking to it and found success throughout this very series when using it. But the Celtics have it figured out. They are out of their shooting slump, and the offense is absolutely humming. Derrick White was a flamethrower, Smart was 4-for-6 from deep, and Jaylen Brown shot 60% from beyond the arc. The Boston identity of hard defense and hot shooters has returned. It is clear that the zone is no longer working. There were actually stretches throughout Game 5 where Miami had finally found a rhythm but they could not get stops. I’m not saying it can no longer work; I am saying the Heat have to lock in more than they have been. They cannot afford to be late on rotations or fall asleep at the arc. Almost anything would be better: let the ball find Brown, run him off the line, and wait for a dumb turnover. Make Smart beat you off the dribble. Easier said than done, but something has to change. Regardless of what they do, they have to run shooters off the line, plain and simple.

On the Boston side of things, it would be shocking if they changed much. There are always things to be cleaned up, though at this point it would be really nit-picky.