Bucks Breakdown: Time to Fear the (New) Deer?

Last night, NBA fans were treated to the regular season debut of the league’s newest superteam, the Milwaukee Bucks with their three stars Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and the recently acquired Damian Lillard. As with any team, they certainly have their weaknesses, but can their strengths be enough to overcome them? Based on last night’s performance, it certainly appears that way.

The Offense

Offense is going to jump out at anyone watching this team. They are liable to go nuclear at the drop of a hat. Middleton is still on a minutes restriction as he continues to recover from surgery, but there was enough on display for fans to see how the Bucks want to conduct business. There were two early possessions in which the Bucks looked to generate a look out of the same set.

It started with Dame up top as the ball handler while Middleton received stagger screens from Giannis and Brook Lopez. Giannis then ran across the floor for a pick-and-roll with Middleton on the wing. Though nothing materialized from the first possession, they ran a very similar look a couple possessions later, but instead of waiting for the P&R, Middleton swung the ball back to Dame who then was the recipient of a screen from Giannis. Then the inevitable: the Bucks scored out the Dame-Giannis P&R. And look at the options out of this.

Giannis is flanked by Lopez and Malik Beasley in the corners. Middleton is on the wing and ends up wide open. Dame is on the other wing with a distracted defender. Giannis basically got to attack one-on-one downhill because Tobias Harris did not fully commit to a double team off of Middleton. Even with good defense by Embiid, Giannis was almost destined to score in that situation. Certainly a tough set to plan against for opponents.

A different look from early in the second quarter showed off some more options with different personnel.

The Bucks had their big three supported by fan favorite Bobby Portis and sophomore MarJon Beauchamp. Middleton and Giannis ran a pistol action on the left wing that opened up the floor. Check this out.

Another unenviable position. Middleton could have easily given the ball to Giannis. If Giannis chose to attack, 76er Pat Beverley would have been the help defender, but he would have needed to leave Dame to provide the help. Yikes. And because Embiid is not on the floor, the bunched up Bucks on the right side of the floor cause a size mismatch for Portis to get an easy bucket. I say again: yikes.

Even with one of the three amigos on the bench, the offense is still potent. Later in the second quarter, Giannis went to the bench, leaving Dame, Middleton, Lopez, Jae Crowder, and Beauchamp on the floor. With Dame and Middleton together, the Bucks really liked giving the former double screens (or “horns”) in the middle to operate out of.

In this instance, it just gets Lillard downhill with an easy jumper over Embiid. The next possession generates another good look for Lillard out of this concept, this time resulting in a three (oh, and Pat Connaughton is there). Lillard took Lopez’s screen and when he saw Embiid playing drop coverage… Well, that is a shot Dame hits in his sleep. But there was something the Bucks ran at the end of the first half that was really exciting: Giannis-Dame inverted P&R. The possibilities from that alone are near endless, and it resulted in a robbed four point play (though Lillard did hit the two free throws he was awarded).

There were other things that will need some tuning as the season progresses (like the split run at the beginning of the third quarter), but overall, the offense this team can run is really exciting and dynamic. There are so many threats on the floor at any given time. The scariest part is that Giannis did not even play a great game. Sure, he ended the night with a double-double, but he turned the ball over seven times. Under normal circumstances, that combined with limited Middleton minutes would almost ensure a Bucks defeat. But Dame Time is real, and Lilard’s record breaking 39 point debut sealed victory for the Fiserv faithful. Just as the world predicted: the Bucks can go nuclear at any time. The only things standing in their way of domination are health and defense.

The Defense

Bucks head coach Adrian Griffin won a championship under Nick Nurse as an assistant coach in 2019. The man knows defense, and so does the Milwaukee roster. The loss of Jrue Holiday is certainly a big one, but the Bucks do not necessarily need a top five defense to win the championship (especially given the offense we just discussed).

The biggest concern defensively for the Bucks is going to be on the perimeter. Lillard is a generational offensive talent. His defense, on the other hand, is lacking. To compensate, the Bucks have moved Malik Beasley into the starting lineup to tackle the best opposing perimeter player. In this game, that was Tyrese Maxey. Early on, the Bucks looked really good. Just look at these rotations.

That is the result of great coaching and tremendous communication/ understanding from the players. However, there were some concerns in transition. Like here, where reigning MVP and perennial post problem Joel Embiid is wide open under the basket.

When the Bucks got into their defense though, they were able to do what the Bucks do: pack the paint and force tough shots inside. And as a bonus, they were able to cover some of those Lillard liabilities. Yes, the 76ers went on some runs late, but it’s the NBA. Teams are going to go on runs. From what we have seen so far, the Bucks look good enough defensively to take them deep into the playoffs. They have the personnel, they have the experience, and they have the flexibility. Yes, there were some miscommunications…

However, nothing to be too concerned about yet. The real test for the Bucks will be playing a good, complete backcourt. Their match-ups with teams like Cleveland, Boston, Golden State, and Phoenix will be ones to keep an eye on. For now, though, one thing is clear: NBA, you should fear the deer.